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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/13 10:56

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Wheat is the downside leader in soft midday trade. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is flat with the Dow up 6. The dollar index is 6 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up 
$0.20. Livestock trade is weaker with feeder cattle sharply lower. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold up 10.00.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with choppy trade continuing as trade works 
to build broader support at the lower end of the range. Harvest will be aided 
by a warm up into the weekend. Ethanol margins remain stable, with ethanol 
futures flat, helping to support blenders with unleaded still near the recent 
highs, and the weekly ethanol report delayed until tomorrow. Basis has held up 
well with the slow pace of harvest so far. South America should see areas of 
improvement as planting progresses, especially in Brazil. Weekly crop progress 
showed harvest at 66% vs. 85% on average. On the December contract, support is 
the $3.71 lows from October, with resistance the spike high from Friday at 
$3.83 3/4. 


   Soybeans are flat to 2 cents lower at midday with buying still scarce as 
trade tries to hold the support levels from Monday. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 
higher, and oil is 35 to 45 points lower. The ral has remained at the lows 
since slipping last week, hindering U.S. competitiveness but we did see 106,000 
metric tons sold to unknown on the daily wire. Bean basis has moved to a more 
sideways trend short term. South America should make more progress through the 
week with improved weather, and Brazil heading towards the planting 
homestretch. Weekly crop progress showed harvest at 85% complete vs. 92% on 
average. On the January chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band at $9.15, 
which we are just above at midday with resistance well above the market at 


   Wheat trade is 5 to 8 cents lower with trade pulling back from the sharp 
Tuesday gains with spring wheat holding up the best so far. The Chicago/Kansas 
City December spread is 78 cents with narrower action to start the week. The 
corn/HRW spread has narrowed back to 55 cents, keeping wheat out of rations. 
Russian values remain elevated with Australia dry, but the U.S. is still 
struggling to capture a larger share, with the dollar remaining at the upper 
end of the range. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 3% to 54% 
good to excellent, and 13% poor to very poor, with 92% planted same as average, 
and 78% emerged vs. 81% on average. The December Kansas City chart support is 
the 20-day at $4.25 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.36, which we 
tested overnight.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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